مقالات ISI حسابداری

Tipping points in science: A catastrophe model of scientific change

A B S T R A C T

In this paper we discuss the capabilities for scientific knowledge to
demonstrate explosive growth in short periods of time. In one
notable example the field of engineering and technology management
grew more rapidly in the 4 years after 1980 than it was
expected to grow for the next 40 years. We provide 22 examples
drawn widely from science, demonstrating that this phenomena is
pervasive throughout science. We propose a new model, based on
the idea of folds from mathematical catastrophe theory, a
phenomenon that is more popularly known as tipping points. This
model is then fit using non-linear regression in the presence of
Poisson noise. While the tipping point does not occur in all fields of
science, in those cases where it does occur the resultant model
overwhelmingly supports the idea of catastrophic growth within
scientific knowledge. We describe the differential equations
underlying the fold catastrophe and relate these equations to a
process of communication and interaction. We relate this dynamic
to other word of mouth models such as the Bass diffusion model.
We further discuss why scientific, and to a lesser extent news,
articles are subject to this behavior while the same phenomenon is
unlikely to occur when solely measuring the sales of a physical
product. We provide evidence of the phenomenon in one brief
sociological sketch of scientific activity. Finally, we discuss the
relevance of the model in terms of innovation forecasting. In
particular, we evaluate the possibility for ex ante anticipation of the
bifurcation point.
 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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کد محصول : شماره 192

jozvekede (192)

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